Quantitative evaluation of the effect of the hepatitis B vaccine based on the HBsAg- and anti-HBs-positive rates in the Chinese population over the last 33 years

Objective: The purpose of the study was to quantitatively evaluate the effect of the hepatitis B vaccine based on 33 years of data published on the HBsAg- and anti-HBs-positive rates. Methods: All data were obtained from studies in published Chinese scientific journals from 1977 to 2009. The HBsAg- or anti-HBs-positive rate over a certain observation period was presented. Results: When the anti-HBs-positive rate was low, the ability of anti-HBs to control the HBsAg-positive rate is not apparent. When the anti-HBs level is high, the ability of anti-HBs to control the HBsAg-positive rate increases gradually, and a linear relationship was observed between the HBsAg-positive rate and the anti-HBs-positive rate. However, the rate of decrease of HBsAg positivity was markedly higher than the theoretical rate. Conclusion: The effect of other known or unknown factors, in addition to the vaccination campaign, could have contributed to the decrease in the prevalence of HBV infection.